Articulate And Implement Vision 2030 To End Separatist Agitation- Ayo Akinfe

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I believe that implementing this Vision 2030 today will end all this separatist agitation

Ayo Akinfe

[1] We should aim for annual double digit economic growth between 2021 and 2030. If we enjoy 10% growth every year for a decade, it will increase Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) to over $1trn, freeing up money for all those social amenities currently beyond the reach of our people

[2] In 2014, when we enjoyed our highest export revenue generation with receipts totalling $102bn. That year we had a trade surplus of about $1.5bn. However, this as we all know was not sustainable because once oil prices fell, the figure dropped dramatically. In 2015 our export revenue fell to $45bn and in 2016 for instance, we had a balance of trade deficit of $925m. Our goal should be to increase export revenue to a minimum of $300bn by 2030. That is the only way to guarantee a surplus, given how much we import

[3] At the moment, over 90% of government revenue comes from crude oil exports. This soft underbelly makes Nigeria highly vulnerable to the vagaries of the global oil market. By 2030, we should aim to reduce this to 50% as part of an aggressive diversification plan. After the Niger Delta Avengers showed us how we are totally dependent on crude oil by crippling production with the destruction of Nigeria’s four export terminals, we simply have to end this dependency on oil or we will cease to exist as a nation state

[4] Given that we have a very young population and are forecast to become one the world’s five most populous nations by 2050, job creation is simply a must. Unless we get our youths into factories in their millions, we will continue to have urban delinquency problems with armed youths being used to foment trouble, violence, banditry, kidnapping, armed robbery, ethnic clashes, political violence etc. Our goal should be to create 20m manufacturing jobs by 2030

[5] In a bid to end the ongoing communal clashes that has the potential to create a food security problem in the country, we need to address the matter of pastoralism. If cattle herdsmen keep attacking farmers, it is only a matter of time before agricultural output falls. If farmers stop going to the farm, can we imagine the consequences? The bony hand of hunger will strangle us to death. Nigeria is by and large self-sufficient in food production and is the world’s sixth largest farm goods producer. If we want to expand on this, we need six mega ranches, with one in each of the the largest six states of the country – Niger, Borno, Yobe, Taraba, Kaduna and Bauchi

[6] By 2030, we must aim to stop exporting crude oil. Basic economics tells us that the more value you add to a product, the higher the margins you make on its sale. Our goal should be to only export finished petroleum products by 2030

[7] Cocoa production is one area where we have a comparative advantage to most other countries in the world as you need the canopy of the tropical rain forest to grow what is known as the “food of the gods.” At the moment, we are the world’s number four cocoa producer behind Ivory Coast, Ghana and Indonesia with an annual output of about 370,000 tonnes. We should aim to become the world’s leading producer by 2030 with an output of 2.5m tonnes. In addition, we should seek to build a vertically integrated market involving grinding, chocolate manufacturing, packaging and branding. By 2030, Nigeria should be exporting packaged, branded finished chocolate products directly to supermarket shelves

[8] Our power supply problems will not go away even if we generate the planned 10,000MW as demand will keep growing. As we industrialise, as our population grows and we build more towns, the demand for electricity will keep increasing. We simply need to add at least 5,000MW to our capacity annually to cope with rising demand. By 2030, we should aim to generate at least 60,000MW of electricity

[9] By 2030, every one of Nigeria’s 36 states must at least generate its own running costs. At the moment, the only state that does this is Lagos State. All the other 35 are dependent on federal handouts, some wholly dependent on what I see as charitable aid. This is simply not sustainable. This dependency on oil can only be stopped when our states become productive. By 2030, we should aim to return to the 1958 revenue generation and sharing formula that our founding fathers signed up to at the Lancaster House Agreement in London. Under that arrangement, the federating units would be responsible for collecting revenue in their confines, keeping 50% of all receipts, paying 20% into the federation account, paying 10% to a geo-political zone fund and paying 20% into the Sovereign Welfare Fund (SWF). This 20% in the SWF will be accessible in cases of emergency of for the funding major capital projects

[10] For me, the key to all this remains manufacturing, manufacturing and manufacturing. By 2030, we should aim to get 50% of all cars driven in the country assembled locally as well as get 50% of all consumer goods like fridges, washing machines, TV sets, laptops, mobile phones, cookers, etc, manufactured locally. With a population of 200m, projected to rise to about 300m by 2030, we simply cannot survive off imports. It is delusional to think that another economy can manufacture that amount of goods for us. The infrastructure outlay is simply too large. Factories that will produce that many goods simply need to be in Nigeria. By 2030, we should seek to get most of the world’s major manufacturers to have plants in Nigeria

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