Petrol prices in Lagos could climb to N1,411 per litre in November 2026 if freight charges, insurance premiums and other import-related expenses remain at their current levels, according to an energy analyst.
Kelvin Emmanuel, Managing Partner of The Energy Consulting Practice, made the projection while examining the factors driving the cost of petrol supplies into Nigeria.
He explained that increasing expenses associated with transporting physical petroleum cargoes, insurance premiums and the gap between dated Brent crude prices and futures contracts were pushing up the actual cost of petrol supply.
According to Emmanuel, physical cargo deliveries had become approximately $30 more expensive than futures contract prices, creating additional pressure on the domestic petroleum market.
Providing a breakdown of his November projection, the analyst put the crude oil delivery cost at $145.60, with additional levies and tariffs of $1.21 payable to the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) and the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA).
This brought the combined landing cost to $146.81 before the application of the refinery premium of $80 per metric tonne.
After factoring in the exchange rate and other associated expenses, Emmanuel estimated the refinery’s ex-gate price at approximately N1,376 per litre. An additional N35 for trucking and related charges would bring the projected retail price in Lagos to N1,411 per litre.
He also explained that Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s pricing structure was affected by import parity, noting that approximately 40 per cent of its feedstock was sourced from international markets.
The analyst further observed that locally supplied crude oil under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation attracted freight charges ranging from $9 to $12 per barrel, alongside premiums paid to third-party traders.
However, some petroleum marketers have challenged the projection, describing the possibility of another price increase as speculative.
The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, rejected the forecast, arguing that crude oil prices had not recorded another increase and that marketers were not considering adjusting their pump prices at the time.
He also noted that petrol was already selling for approximately N1,400 per litre in some parts of the country.
Similarly, Joseph Obele, National Publicity Secretary of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), expressed reservations about the possibility of another increase. He cited indications that tensions in the Middle East were easing, alongside a decline in crude oil prices.
Another independent petroleum marketer, Isa Alheri, however, acknowledged that petrol could sell above N1,400 per litre, depending on movements in international oil prices, exchange rates, freight charges and insurance premiums.
Nigeria operates a deregulated downstream petroleum market, meaning pump prices are influenced by international crude oil prices, foreign exchange rates, refining expenses, transportation and other market-related costs.
The N1,411 figure remains an analyst’s projection rather than an officially announced price adjustment, although it has raised concerns about the possibility of further increases in the cost of petrol.
