Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, the outgoing President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), recently stirred a vital conversation about Nigeria’s economic trajectory, asserting that Nigerians are worse off today than they were at independence in 1960, with GDP per capita dropping from $1,847 to $824.
This statement, grounded in a stark comparison with South Korea’s rise to a $36,000 per capita income, has been met with a rebuttal from Bayo Onanuga, a spokesperson for the Nigerian government and a staunch defender of the All Progressives Congress (APC) administration. Onanuga’s response, however, is a textbook case of deflection, cherry-picking, and denialism that undermines the lived realities of millions of Nigerians.
Dr. Adesina’s critique is not only valid but necessary, and the government’s reaction exposes a troubling unwillingness to confront Nigeria’s economic challenges head-on.
Let’s start with the numbers. Onanuga disputes Adesina’s figures, claiming Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 1960 was a mere $93, not $1,847, and peaked at $3,200 in 2014 after rebasing. But even if we accept Onanuga’s figures, the broader point Adesina makes holds: Nigeria’s economic progress has stagnated relative to its potential and global peers. According to World Bank data, Nigeria’s GDP per capita (in constant 2015 US dollars) was $2,542 in 2014 but fell to $2,162 by 2023—a clear decline. When adjusted for inflation and purchasing power, the picture worsens. The AfDB’s own estimates align with Adesina’s claim, showing a real GDP per capita drop when factoring in population growth and currency devaluation. Nigeria’s population has ballooned from 44.9 million in 1960 to over 220 million today, diluting economic gains. Meanwhile, South Korea, which Adesina rightly highlights, transformed from a poorer nation in 1960 to a global leader through deliberate investments in education, technology, and governance—areas where Nigeria has faltered under successive administrations, including the APC’s.
Onanuga’s argument that GDP per capita is a “poor tool” for assessing living standards is a convenient distraction. While GDP per capita has limitations, it remains a widely accepted indicator of economic health, especially when paired with other metrics like the Human Development Index (HDI). Nigeria’s HDI in 2023 was a dismal 0.548, ranking 161st globally, barely above conflict-ridden nations. In 1960, Nigeria’s HDI was estimated at 0.300, but the slow progress over 64 years—while countries like South Korea leapt from 0.278 to 0.929—underscores Adesina’s point. Onanuga touts improvements like mobile phone access (from 18,724 lines in 1960 to 200 million users today) and MTN’s N1 trillion revenue in 2025 as signs of progress. But this cherry-picked narrative ignores the broader context: mobile penetration, while impressive, does not equate to economic well-being when 133 million Nigerians live in multidimensional poverty, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in 2022. The informal economy, which Onanuga claims is underrepresented in GDP figures, is indeed significant—estimated at 57.4% of the economy or $779 billion by World Economics—but its dominance reflects government failure to formalize economic activity, leaving millions without social safety nets or stable incomes.
The APC-led government’s track record under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who assumed office in May 2023, further validates Adesina’s critique. Since 2015, when the APC took power, Nigeria has faced two recessions (2016 and 2020), soaring inflation (24.5% as of early 2025, per NBS), and a naira devaluation that has eroded purchasing power. Fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification, while necessary reforms, were poorly executed, lacking the “strong institutions, policy consistency, and good governance” Adesina rightly calls for. The result? A cost-of-living crisis that has left 63% of Nigerians food insecure, according to the 2024 Global Hunger Index. Onanuga’s claim of “phenomenal access” to healthcare and education rings hollow when 40% of Nigerians lack access to primary healthcare (Lancet Nigeria Commission, 2022) and 20 million children are out of school (UNESCO, 2023). The government’s own data betrays its narrative: the World Bank notes that Nigerians born in 2020 will be only 36% as productive as they could be due to deficits in education and health—a damning indictment of APC governance.
Onanuga’s defense also glosses over systemic issues like insecurity, which the APC has failed to address despite campaign promises. The World Bank highlights ongoing banditry, insurgency, and separatist agitations as major economic drags, particularly in the northwest, northeast, and southeast. Adesina himself noted the crippling lack of electricity, stating, “No business in Nigeria can survive without a generator.” Nigeria loses $29 billion annually to poor electricity (AfDB, 2025), yet the APC government has not delivered on its promise to generate 20,000 MW by 2020—current output hovers around 4,000 MW for a population of 220 million. South Korea, by contrast, generates over 140,000 MW for 51 million people. This energy deficit stifles industrialization, a point Adesina emphasizes when he calls for Nigeria to become “Africa’s industrial powerhouse.”
The Nigerian government’s response to Adesina’s critique, channeled through Onanuga, reeks of denialism and propaganda. Instead of engaging with the substance of Adesina’s argument, Onanuga resorts to personal attacks and statistical sleight-of-hand. This is not new—former APC spokesperson Bolaji Abdullahi once admitted, “The toughest job I have done was being APC spokesman; you cannot do the job without lying.” Onanuga’s post, riddled with repetition and errors (as noted by X users like @waziri_adeniyi), reflects a broader pattern of incompetence in the Tinubu administration. From 20,000 Naira-per-month “retards” (as another user called the government’s social media defenders) to policy flip-flops, the APC has consistently prioritized optics over substance. Adesina, a globally respected economist, deserves better than this dismissive rhetoric from a government that has failed to deliver on its “Renewed Hope” agenda.
Dr. Adesina’s warning is a clarion call for Nigeria to wake up. The facts—declining GDP per capita, rampant poverty, insecurity, and infrastructure deficits—support his assertion that Nigerians are worse off than in 1960 relative to global standards and unfulfilled potential. The APC and Bayo Onanuga can spin statistics all they want, but they cannot erase the hunger in the land, as X user @SenNenadNews poignantly stated: “Na statistics we go chop?” Nigeria needs leaders who will heed Adesina’s advice—investing in technology, infrastructure, and governance—rather than deflecting blame. Until then, the government’s rebuttals will remain what they are: noise in the face of a silent, suffering majority. Let’s stand with Adesina and demand the truth—and the action—that Nigeria deserves.
Maazị Tochukwu Ezeoke
