Having been aware that President Tinubu’s Government is built on lies and propaganda, I always pay attention to every narrative that comes from his government and his supporters. And this time, it is his acclaimed GDP growth.
But look beyond the headlines.
Nigeria’s nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in U.S. dollar terms fell from about $487 billion in 2023 when President Bola Tinubu took office to a low of around $252 billion in 2024. Today (2026) projections and recent metrics place the nominal GDP in dollar terms back up to approximately $377 Billion.
*But my people if you minus 377 that is now from 487 that it was in 2023 you have 110 Billion Dollars GDP lost*.
This is the economic witchcraft that Nigeria has witnessed under President Tinubu since 2023. Instead of telling the world that Nigerian GDP is recovering the propaganda government is claiming growth.
But lets even look further.
Since taking office in May 2023, President Bola Tinubu’s administration has repeatedly cited Nigeria’s GDP growth figures as proof that economic reforms are working. But a closer look at the structure, quality, and lived impact of that growth raises serious questions about whether the headline numbers tell the full story.
GDP growth in Nigeria since 2023 has been driven largely by sectors that do not employ most Nigerians, including Oil & Gas. After years of decline, oil GDP grew 5.70% in Q1 2024 and 10.16% in Q2 2024 due to higher production and crude prices. But oil accounts for 10% of GDP and 2% of employment.
Another sector is Financial Services & ICT. These sectors posted double-digit growth, 19.16% and 5.44% respectively in Q2 2024. Yet they are capital intensive, not labour intensive.
But the agriculture sector which employs 35% of Nigerians, grew only 1.53% in Q2 2024. Manufacturing grew 1.28%. Both are below population growth of 2.6%.
So while they claim GDP is ticking up, the sectors where most people work are stagnating. The NBS unemployment rate was 4.3% in Q2 2024 using a new methodology, but the time-related underemployment rate was 13%. Youth unemployment remains above 8.5%. That disconnect is why many households do not “feel” the growth.
It gets worst because inflation is eroding any real gains if they exist. So nominal GDP rose simply because prices rose. That is what is happening.
Headline Inflation peaked at 34.19% in June 2024, and was still 32.15% in August 2025. Food Inflation was above 40% for most of 2024. The naira moved from N460/$ to over N1,600/$ in 2024, raising the cost of imports, fuel, and machinery.
When you adjust GDP for inflation, “real” growth of 3% means the economy is barely outpacing population growth. Per capita GDP in dollar terms has actually fallen from $1,700 in 2022 to $1,100 in 2024 due to naira devaluation. So the economy is “bigger” in naira, but Nigerians are poorer in purchasing power.
The 2023-2024 growth bump largely reflects two one-off policy moves, not structural productivity gains. FAAC allocations to states tripled. That boosted government spending and services GDP. Few made in Nigeria exports and remittances from Nigerians abroad look bigger in naira terms, inflating the GDP rebasing effect.
The reform has not translated into new factories, more power, or lower logistics costs. Instead, businesses report higher input costs. The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria reported 200 plus member companies shut down in 2024 due to energy and FX costs. That’s de-industrialization and not growth.
The administration argues that higher revenues prove the reforms work. Federation revenue did rise to N31.9 trillion in 2024. But debt servicing consumed 74% of revenue in 2023 and 68% in 2024. New borrowings continued. Total public debt hit N134.3 trillion by Q2 2024.
Yet capital expenditure execution remains low. States got more money but most went to recurrent costs and palliatives, not infrastructure that drives long-term GDP.
Growth funded by borrowing and consumption, not investment, is not sustainable.
So citing 3% GDP growth while poverty deepens looks like celebrating the average in a deeply unequal economy. No one disputes that Nigeria needed subsidy reform and FX unification. But using quarterly GDP as the main scorecard is misleading.
The growth is narrowly concentrated in oil, finance, and telecoms. It is not inclusive. Agriculture, manufacturing, and MSMEs are lagging. So it is not translating to welfare. Rather inflation and FX loss have cut real incomes. we haven’t seen power, roads, or credit reforms that would make 9 to 10% sustained growth possible.
A more honest metric should have been jobs created, food inflation, manufacturing capacity utilization, and per capita income in PPP terms and not just headline GDP.
*Until those numbers move, the acclaimed GDP growth is simply an economic witchcraft and not progress or development*.
*Until Nigeria’s GDP gets back to $487 Billion were it was in 2023 and surpasses it President Tinubu is lying about GDP growth because $377 Billion is still below where he met Nigeria’s GDP*.
Great Imo Jonathan
